Gannett Stock

[no name.]

beam us up scotty.....can't get any worse...

[tcdude]

I'm not aware of any specific ongoing talks, but I actually think it a more likely scenario now than it has been over the last 18 months. They're a much more attractive partner now having already done most of the heavy lifting on restructuring both operations and debt, the board with a reasonable premium above current stock price wouldn't feel like they'd totally screwed the stockholders (of which they themselves are members), with the economy stabilizing visibility is getting better, and with the financial markets unfrozen financing some portion of a deal easier.

Dubow did talk about "strategic options" and M&A yesterday, so speculation in that direction is unsurprising. The thing is, he discussed them in the context of Gracia Martore's new job which isn't just new for her, it is a new position within the company --so it is entirely possible that discussion was just letting everyone know who was in charge of what inside Gannett in the new structure, and not evidence of a renewed interest in selling the company.

[tcdude]

thestreet.com now beginning to see what I've seen:

"At $15, Gannett is trading at less than 8x 2010 consensus estimates. At 12x earnings, this is a $23 stock. I believe that the current outlook is still quite conservative -- with good reason, given the remaining uncertainties in this economy. But if Gannett can continue to generate good free cash flow, can continue to pay down debt and continue to manage expenses as it has over the past several quarters, there may be some further upside in this stock."

12x earnings is still conservative, btw, by current standards and quite reasonable by historical standards. The s&p 500 as a whole is trading around 20x earnings.

[Guest]

thestreet.com now beginning to see what I've seen:

"At $15, Gannett is trading at less than 8x 2010 consensus estimates. At 12x earnings, this is a $23 stock. I believe that the current outlook is still quite conservative -- with good reason, given the remaining uncertainties in this economy. But if Gannett can continue to generate good free cash flow, can continue to pay down debt and continue to manage expenses as it has over the past several quarters, there may be some further upside in this stock."

12x earnings is still conservative, btw, by current standards and quite reasonable by historical standards. The s&p 500 as a whole is trading around 20x earnings.

Dude- The Street.Com isn't interested in what you believe. You aren't as smart as you think. Raising profits (and the truth here s) based entirely on cutting the workforce is like putting icing on dogs#@t. Even as the economy picks up, ads are not. The product continues to deteriorate and the subscriber base is fading. Nobody is going to pay for the same garbage product online either. Advertisers know this and will move further away from all things Gannett at an accelerated pace. You can only sugar coat it for so long. Not drinking the kool-aid here, kid.

[tcdude]

No, I wasn't suggesting they read my posts here and repost them as their own work. Sheesh. Bottom line, they've just put a $23 price target on a $15 stock. If you find them credible, you can follow that or not as you see fit. They aren't the first market analysts recently to raise their target for GCI to $20+.

[Guest]

No, I wasn't suggesting they read my posts here and repost them as their own work. Sheesh. Bottom line, they've just put a $23 price target on a $15 stock. If you find them credible, you can follow that or not as you see fit. They aren't the first market analysts recently to raise their target for GCI to $20+.

My point is that ad revenues going foward from oh let's say...right now, will not support your/their price target. If the earnings aren't there to support the "theory" of what the stock "could be", the price will fall. Mark my words which I will gladly eat if I am wrong, GCI will be at $10 before and if it EVER hits $20.

[tcdude]

If the economy doesn't "double dip", which certainly could happen, I think it likely 1Q and 2Q revenues will exceed year over year comparisons on a company-wide basis. We'll see. Broadcast certainly will. Broadcast will for the year too, and by substantial margins. Digital will. Publishing may not, but the question will then be by how much.

Broadcasting 4Q '09 revenue exceeded 4Q '08 revenue, ex-political, and a lot of ad budgets were largely locked in 4Q '08 before the financial crisis hit full force in early October.

In a squirrely market as we have at the moment, it isn't impossible that GCI could "see $10 before $20". It was at $10 just two months ago, after all, and is still up over 35% since mid-December at this writing with the general market taking a pounding --which implies a lot of nervous (about the general market) people could still take significant profits in GCI. But even if that happened because of general market pressure, that doesn't mean GCI can't see $20 by summer (say around 2Q announcement) or sooner.

Longer term, 2011 and later, there are still a whole lot of challenges, but 2010 is going to be pretty good for GCI (the stock, that is --still pain to come for some employees) if the rest of the economy provides at least non-recessionary support.

[Guest]

YOY Earnings growth means nothing if it's only based on staff cuts!!! There is NO earnings growth. Earnings are, and will continue to fall. All they can do it cut and furlough until they have nothing left to cut.

[tcdude]

I said "revenues", not earnings. I think Gracia refused to predict 1Q revenues in newspapers because she knew from the momentum they've seen in January already that they have a shot at a YOY beat on revenues in newspapers for 1Q, but to predict it --or even put it on the table as a possibility-- and then not hit it would be a big disappointment. She likely also realized it would be tone deaf and cruel to brag about an expected revenue beat in 1Q when she knows there are still furloughs and layoffs in the pipeline.

Again, Broadcast revenues *will* beat YoY in 1Q (thank you, Olympics). Digital probably will, tho I won't promise it. Broadcast *will* beat for full year 2010 on *revenues* --thank you olympics, and thank you an estimated $4.4 billion of political-year ad spend, 60% of which goes to local TV affiliates. Broadcast beating YoY revenues for the full year is nearly written in stone.

[Guest]

$10 before $20 is nearly written in stone.